The family car conundrum: Is it time to go electric?

This is a lay-person’s look at what vehicle to buy if you’re in the market for one right now. I’m not a rev-head and generally speaking don’t like to spend much time thinking about cars. But, I recently needed to do some thinking as my trusty Prado had suddenly become untrusty. After much consideration I decided a ute would be a good option for our family and pulled the pin on an Amarok turbo diesel.

After buying the Rok, I became aware of Dieselgate and took a closer look at it. What I found was not good (massive understatement). As a result, I concluded diesel has a very unsure future and sold the Rok. By this time, I’d fixed the Prado and made it not so untrusty. So here we are back to driving this great, but thirsty and not very green 4x … for now. This article is what I’ve learnt in the last few months whilst exploring the market and trying to figure out the best current options.

The electric vehicle (EV) expo

We’ve just had the first electric vehicle expo in Noosa and it was a real treat to finally see some of these legends in the flesh, as well as a range of other vehicles including boats, bicycles, conversions (the VW Beetle conversion is awesome), motorbikes and even an electric tuk-tuk.

However, for the person serious about buying a car right now, there were only a few options on display: a couple of hybrids like the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, the very expensive Tesla X’s, the Nissan Leaf and the BMW i3.

Electric options compared

Let’s look at the costs of the EVs on show at the expo and the cost difference between an EV and the equivalent standard combustion engine model.

Are we at the tipping point?

There’s no doubt that right now feels like a tipping point for electric vehicles with Tesla looming large (it was the most valuable car manufacturer for a short time last year) and other electric based options becoming widely available. So, what’s a person to do? Stick with established fuels? Switch to full electric? Go hybrid? What if you need a ute or a 4×4?

Let’s take a closer look at where we’re at in 2018.

Regular diesel and petrol combustion engines

There’s certainly a  real sense that the days of the full combustion engine are coming to an end. A couple of weeks ago Nissan announced that they will be stopping production of all diesel engines in passenger cars, matching decisions made by other car makers such as Volvo.

The announcement from Nissan is probably more important as they’re not known as a progressive brand. Volkswagen, who’ve been very slow on the EV uptake because of their misguided preoccupation on diesel, are spending $US40 billion right now trying to catch up. This is welcome news from the world’s biggest car maker and goes a small way to start rectifying the atrocious behaviour that became Dieselgate.

The diesel paradox

Why did Europe push so hard to move all passenger vehicles to diesel over the last 15 years? In part, because of the belief that diesel was better for the environment than petrol. It’s true that 1km driven on diesel will emit less CO2 than 1km driven on petrol, so from a greenhouse gas perspective it is greener. But diesel also emits other pollutants that petrol doesn’t, and these are hazardous to humans. NOx in particular is linked to a whole range of health issues.

I’m not sure who’s to blame for suppressing the information on the harm of these emissions, but certainly VW, and other car makers who have been installing defeat devices, didn’t help the situation as regulators were fooled into thinking that the harmful diesel emissions were at safer levels than was the case. Shockingly, some testing in the US found that the actual NOx levels were 50-70 times higher without the defeat device.

The reality is that diesel is a dirty fuel and should never have found its way into hundreds of millions of passenger vehicles. But what about the mitigation strategies that the automakers have deployed, like the DFPs (Diesel Particulate Filters), ERGs (Exhaust Gas Reticulation) and AdBlue (urea sprayed into the exhaust fumes to neutralise the NOx)? Yes, it’s true these things are capable of reducing diesel’s harmful emissions, but to what extent? If they were so good, why did VW feel they needed to establish one of the largest scams in history?

The truth is that not only are these mitigation techniques questionable in terms of effectiveness, but crucially they’re also really bad for your car. A lot of people rip them out because they don’t want their ‘babies’ being harmed, and also want to prevent the associated costs that come with this harm, which are not insubstantial.

ERGs for example, take a percentage of the exhaust emissions and push it back through the engine, which then also pushes micro particles of oil back into the engine – not good for it. Some add what’s called a catch-can; a simple collection device installed just before the engine to catch this unwanted oil, before it gets into the engine. AdBlue (synthetic urea) is a promising technology that apparently turns harmful NOx into harmless nitrogen and steam. However, it is an additional measure to the DFP and ERG—it’s doesn’t replace them.

So, what we have is a dirty fuel trying to be made clean with cleaning methods that are not effective enough whilst damaging your car and emitting substances harmful to human health.

Petrol is better, but it is not the future

Petrol is a much simpler proposition; it doesn’t contain the same harmful substances as diesel (so far as I’m aware) and doesn’t need the same kind of emission mitigation techniques. Thus, it’s cleaner and not detrimental to the engine. It does however emit a substantial amount of CO2, which is not renewable and not green.

In conclusion: Diesel is a dirty and harmful fuel that should not be in passenger cars. If the EU and the European automakers had concentrated their efforts on hybrids over the last 15 years, we’d be in a much better place. Anyone buying a diesel now will need to consider what the vehicle will be worth in 8-10 years. They’re already enemy #1 in Europe and major manufactures have signalled that they will stop making them. It’s conceivable that a diesel only engine may be worth very little in the future.

Petrol, whilst not as harmful to humans as diesel, is not an efficient fuel and emits a large amount of CO2. While I can still see petrol only engines around in 5-10 years, they will be on the wane as there will be many cheaper, greener options available.

However, there will I believe, be a future for both fuels as part of a petrol/diesel hybrid setup. More on that later.

Where are we at with full electric vehicles?

Full electric vehicles, or BEVs (battery electric vehicle) as they’re known, have started to look very attractive in the past few years, especially since Tesla came onto the scene and started making them accessible. On the surface BEVs look great—no direct emissions, no noise, way fewer parts to go wrong and some seriously good performance specs (BEVs are much quicker off the line than standard combustion engines).

So, what’s not to like?

The price for one. BEVs are currently much more expensive than comparable cars with combustion engines. This will of course change over time as production becomes more streamlined and the cost of batteries comes down. But right now, it doesn’t make sense for the average punter to buy into a solution that’s not mature and that’s considerably more expensive than other options. It also seems crazy to be spending money on batteries today when their costs are dropping so much (and performance getting better) each year. Battery costs dropped by 40% last year alone.

There’s also the consideration of range and charge management. The Nissan Leaf according to Nissan will do 400km on a single charge, which is pretty decent—even get you to Brissy and back if you believe the specs. But, what happens on longer journeys or if you have an unexpected trip you need to take, and your charge is low?

Charge stations, some people will tell you. But I don’t think a few charge stations here and there are going to do the trick. In the worst-case scenario, you could be at the charge station for a very long time: if you arrive at one and you have to wait for a plug, you might have to wait 2-3 hours before one becomes available and then another 2-3 to get your car charged. That’s not going to fly for most people.

So, while I think the range of BEVs is fit for purpose in cities (as long as you’re the staycation type, fly on holidays or have oodles of time to kill at charge stations), I think at this stage they’re not practical in the regions of this wonderful and vast country of ours.

The elephant in the room: how green is my BEV? If they’re going to be charged from 100% renewable energy (or mostly renewable energy), then it’s a no-brainer—they’re a 100% clean-green mode of transport. But who currently has the ability to charge their BEV with 100% renewable energy? I suspect very, very few.

If you’re not charging with renewables, then you’re most likely getting the bulk of your energy from coal fired power stations. The BEV is going to need a substantial amount and that will place a lot of pressure on the grid. For a small BEV you’ll be adding a household or two and, for larger ones up to seven households*. Adding up to seven household’s worth of energy to the to the grid per BEV (double that if you need two) sounds counter-productive if your aim is to be green. BEVs plugged into coal fired power stations are not green and perhaps no better on the green scale than standard combustion engines.

I’m sure there are things that can be done to reduce the impact on the grid and reliance on coal fired power, but these will take time, money and effort and are not really within the scope of what I’m discussing here: options for the average punter looking to buy a car right now.

There is also no viable BEV option for utes and 4x4s. The awesome Bollinger B1 is apparently going to hit us sometime in the next couple of years; good news for the early adopters.

Conclusion: Full EV options are limited and expensive with a real issue around how far you can go on a single charge and, they’re not green when plugged into the grid. There are also no realistic 4×4 options at the moment. As of now, BEVs are still in the domain of the early adopter and not a serious consideration for the average punter.

Where are we at with hybrids?

I have to confess that I didn’t know all much about hybrids, as I’ve only just started looking into them, but from what I’ve seen this technology seems very promising as a stop gap between full combustion and full electric—especially in the regions.

Hybrids are nothing new of course, with the first mass produced Toyota hybrid, the Prius, coming out globally in 2000 (’97 in Japan), being the only option for quite some time with pricing at a premium.

In 2018, the picture for hybrids is looking a bit better. Not only are there more options, but we also have PHEVs which, unlike their hybrid predecessors such as the Prius, can be charged from the wall instead of only by regenerative braking. And PHEVs are now making their way into larger vehicles: SUVs and 4x4s, which is good news for those people who require that kind of vehicle.

Take the Audi Q7 e-tron quattro which pairs a V6 3.0 turbo diesel with electric to get a combined consumption of 1.9L/100km. 1.9L per 100km with a 3.0 V6? That’s quite compelling. It’s also compelling because the bulk of the short driving would be done on electric with the diesel only kicking in on longer, faster drives where diesel preforms best.

This would also assist with the DFP as it can be burned off during highway driving. Is this better than a similar setup using a petrol/electric hybrid? I’m not sure. VW have developed an amazing 3.0L turbo diesel and I’m sure they’re trying to find ways of using it rather than developing a petrol version.

The Audi Q7 PHEV is a beaut, but it’ll be in a cost bracket that most can’t afford. What’s available at the cheaper end of the market? Well, to my surprise there aren’t that many affordable PHEV options. Toyota have been dragging their heels with a Prius PHEV and it looks like they’ll only start offering those in earnest in AU by 2020.

Hyundai have announced that they will be introducing their Ioniq EV range to Australia this year which will include a plug-in option, but as of now there is no pricing which makes it difficult to comment on affordability. From available commentary it looks like the regular hybrids in the Ionic range will be fairly well priced, but the PHEV variant looks like it’ll be quite a lot more, most likely pushing it out of reach for the average punter.

The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV has been around for a few years and appears to be one of the only easily available options around at the moment. However, you will be paying almost $20K more over the regular combustion engine variant. $20K is a lot of dough in anyone’s language.

It’s looking like 2018 might not be the year of the PHEV for most people. The range is small and skewed toward the high end of the market. Once Toyota and others come online in the next few years we might see some competition and some price reductions.

So, if PHEVs aren’t the ticket, that leaves us with regular ol’ petrol-eclectic hybrids, of which there are quite a few, especially in the compact and sedan markets. Are these a better proposition than a standard combustion engine?

From a green angle, it is a no-brainer, hybrids are much greener than combustion engines. A hybrid will emit around 50% less CO2 than its petrol cousin. Great news! But do the numbers stack up?

The return on your investment

How long will it take to pay off the hybrid premium in fuel cost savings? It’s clear that the premium paid for the bigger SUVs and 4x4s is not going to stack up, but on the cheaper end, the difference between hybrids and standard variants is quite small.

My shitty maths skills are telling me that a Toyota Corolla Hybrid will break even after 5,333km**, which equates to around 4 months of driving and the Camry repay time is even faster at 3,066km or 2.5 months. So, after a few months of driving you’ll be saving money as well as being greener?

Seems like a no-brainer if you’re looking for that type of car. These hybrids also have the same size tank as the non-hybrid, and with a fuel economy almost half that of the petrol only model, the range will be greater with the hybrid. Good news for the region dwellers.

Conclusion: PHEVs are improving all the time and their costs are reducing as battery and other costs come down, but there are still only a few options and big players like Toyota and Volkswagen are yet to make a meaningful impact in this area. As of now, the PHEV market is small and immature and because of the large battery, these cars will suffer from the same resale problem as the BEVs—the depreciation will be greater than other cars because the big-ticket item, the battery, is getting cheaper and cheaper each year (remember battery costs fell buy 40% last year alone).

However, if you’re in the market for a compact or a sedan, the case for getting a standard hybrid looks strong. The difference in cost between the hybrid and the non-hybrid is small (you only need to drive it a few months to break even), and the technology, at 20 years old, is very mature. Looks like you’d be a bit crazy not to go with a hybrid in this case.

But, if you’re in the market for a SUV or 4×4 the hybrid case is less compelling, with the available options being small and coming at a big premium. These hybrids may pay for themselves in 8-10 years in fuel cost savings, but at that time you’d be looking at a new battery, which isn’t cheap, so it may still not stack up financially. However, a hybrid SUV may still be worth something in 10 years, whereas a pure diesel may be worth very little, so that’s something to consider.

What’s the go with hydrogen cells?

Elon says they’re rubbish. End of story. No, we can’t believe everything Emperor Musk says, but he might be right on this one. Toyota are taking a big bet on hydrogen cells and may explain why they’re lagging behind in the PHEV/BEV department, but they’re really the only ones doing anything in earnest.

Conclusion: There is nothing on the market and no way to fill up so as of now there is nothing to talk about.

Final thoughts

I think the key question is: Do you need a new vehicle immediately or are you able to wait?

If you need something immediately and you don’t fall into the early adopter bracket, where you’re willing to pay a large premium for driving a BEV or PHEV and you’re looking for a compact or sedan, then there are standard petrol-electric hybrid options that look very compelling, to the point where it seems crazy not to buy a one. You’ll be saving money (+- 50% of your regular fuel bill) and being green. If you need an SUV or 4×4, it looks like you’ll need to pick from the current diesel-only and petrol-only ranges—of which there are loads. You’ll need to decide which of those is better for you—it’s not a simple choice and some homework wouldn’t go amiss.

If you don’t need something immediately and can wait a couple of years or a bit more, then that might be the best option—there’s a massive amount going on in this space and it’s clear the major automakers are finally taking electric seriously (or punters are taking electric seriously, whichever comes first in these affairs). Battery prices are dropping quickly and prices of EVs in general are on a downward trend. It may not be too long before some of the other options like BEVs and PHEVs stack up and are no longer in the early adopter bracket.

There’s also the argument that the greenest thing you can do is to just keep driving the car you own. If you’re still driving a car made in the 1970s, that could be considered pretty green when compared to the typical alternative over that period; getting a new car every 3-5 years.

As for me, the old girl is going again and displaying helpful signs of trust. Also, it looks like it’ll be a while before there’s a realistic EV option in the 4×4 space. If VW spend part of the $40B they’re currently spending on EVs, on dumping the Audi Q7 hybrid into an Amarok (1.9L/100km), I might take another look. Or perhaps I’ll review my need for a big 4×4 and go with a smaller, greener car.

But for now, we wait, and I look forward to what’ll be on show at next year’s Noosa electric vehicle expo.

Have you thought about buying a car right now or done some research? I’d love to hear your thoughts on the topic. Please leave a comment.

* Heard on a radio show so can’t vouch for veracity

** Based on 15,000km per annum average and $1.5 p/l for petrol.